Aston Villa vs Liverpool - Tactical Preview

There are a few points of interest in this game. Gerard Houllier had his 'emotional homecoming' at Anfield in December of course, and although he sadly won't be present on Sunday, another ex-Liverpool favourite Gary McAllister will be in the Villa dugout. Also, it's no secret that Liverpool have been sniffing around Ashley Young and Stewart Downing for some time now, and a move to Anfield for one of both seems to be on the cards this Summer. The travelling fans in red will be hoping that Villa's two creative wingers save their best for next season however, as Liverpool continue their push for fifth place (which now relies on Tottenham failing to beat Birmingham City at White Hart Lane on Sunday).

At this stage of the season, it's always difficult to predict line-ups, but a win for Villa could theoretically take them as high as ninth-place (from their current 13th), so they're likely to put out their strongest possible team. A solid defensive performance and two good Darren Bent finishes won the points for Villa away at Arsenal at the weekend, so I suspect they'll stick with much the same line-up, with the exception, perhaps, of Fabian Delph who was playing only his second game of the season after a return from injury (and also might be a bit worse for wear: he said the Villa boys were planning to have "more than a few pints" to celebrate their Emirates victory). I suspect he'll be replaced by either Gabby Agbonlahor or, more likely, Marc Albrighton in a 4-2-3-1 (which often looks like a 4-4-1-1), but it's possible that Emile Heskey (who tends to feature in most home games) will regain his place  upfront alongside Darren Bent. McAllister might also want to give Michael Bradley (in place of Reo-Coker or Stiliyan Petrov) one last run-out before his loan agreement expires, and Ciaran Clark has been agitating for a return to the first team.

Dalglish, on the other hand, may well name an unchanged team, despite having endured a surprise defeat to Tottenham in the last game. Raul Meireles has returned to training after the injury he suffered at Craven Cottage, but it seems likely that Maxi Rodriguez will retain his place on the left of midfield, and Dalglish will want to persist with his favoured Carroll/Suarez strike-partnership while they are both fit. There is a possibility that Fabio Aurelio will return from injury to take John Flanagan's starting place, and Spearing might be dropped in favour of the more creative Jonjo Shelvey, who has impressed in recent substitute performances. But, in all probability, the teams will line up like this:



The two team shapes are clearly quite similar, and in these situations games can become a little stodgy and stunted, so both sides will be relying on their expensive January signings to make the difference. Darren Bent has been caught offside more regularly than any other player this season, and he spends an awful lot of his time on the shoulder of the last defender. This paid dividends against Arsenal's poorly organised defence, as Bent was able to break their shoddy offside-trap for both of his goals (although the finish for his first goal was genuinely excellent). As such, you can bet that Dalglish and Clarke have been working on Liverpool's defensive line in training this week. Bent also relies on Villa's creative players to provide him with chances, so it seems likely that Lucas and Spearing will have been given instructions on how to deal with Ashley Young's intelligent play, especially if he is given the free role behind the striker, and Downing has been a creative force for Aston Villa too this season, so Liverpool's right-back (most likely Flanagan) will have to do a good job of stopping his crosses from deep.

From Liverpool's point of view, if they do keep the same team, certain aspects of their game will need to improve substantially from the Tottenham game - most significantly in terms of the transition between defence and attack, which was poor at Anfield on Sunday. If Aston Villa do a good job of stifling Suarez, as Dawson and Sandro managed to do with some success, then Liverpool might look stolid and one-dimensional. For this reason, another cameo appearance or even a starting place for Shelvey seems likely, as he is a player who can stretch and bisect otherwise sturdy defences with his smart passing play.

On the whole, a low-scoring draw seems a likely result, but Liverpool have recorded a few surprise thrashings in the last few weeks (away at Fulham, for example) so I wouldn't bet against a victorious end to the season for Dalglish's team.

*****
Addendum: 21/05/2011

Some leaked team news suggests that Johnson, Maxi and Carroll are all left out for Liverpool, with Aurelio and Meireles returning to the starting line-up, and that Jonjo Shelvey has a place in a 5-man midfield behind Luis Suarez. To me, this is excellent news, and should see us employing a shape similar to the one we used against Fulham. We lacked a player with Shelvey's creative abilities against Tottenham (until he came on, that is), and hopefully he'll be able to demonstrate to the Liverpool fans how effectively he can dictate play from the midfield. Here's a revised tactical lineup:

Liverpool 0 - 2 Tottenham Hotspur

Liverpool lined up as expected, with Glen Johnson at left-back and Andy Carroll returning to the starting line up at the expense of the injured Meireles. Ledley King started for Tottenham for the first time since October, and Younes Kaboul came in at right-back.



This was a fairly even if unremarkable game, neither side had many clear chances, but ultimately Tottenham made the most of their breaks, while Liverpool weren't able to raise their game to the level of recent weeks. The home side's build-up play was bitty, and there was very little of the flowing pass-and-move football which had livened up Liverpool's past few games. Some will lay the blame at the feet of Andy Carroll - wrongly, in my opinion, as he performed fairly well, and his build-up play was fine. There is, however, a question to be asked about whether Carroll fits into Liverpool's best (in the sense of being the most effective) eleven.

But that is a question for another time. The main problem for Liverpool on Sunday was their inability to deal with Tottenham's patient pressure and possession football - not that it posed a real threat to Pepe Reina, but it was disheartening to see that Tottenham were able to comfortably dominate for large periods, especially in the first-half. Part of the problem lay with the defensive shape which, although sturdy, didn't easily allow Liverpool to turn defence into attack. This diagram shows what happened when Tottenham held possession in Liverpool's half:



The back four would squeeze very narrow, and the two wide midfielders would track their opposing wingers very deep - Maxi in particular had clearly been instructed to double up on Aaron Lennon. In the main, this neutralised Tottenham's attacking threat (their goals came from a deflected shot from a corner and a dodgy penalty decision, after all), but once Spurs were a goal to the good, a more pro-active approach was needed. Modric's dynamic playmaking dominated the midfield where white shirts outnumbered reds 4-to-2 on occasion, with Pienaar drifting in from the flanks and Van der Vaart dropping deep to receive the ball.

The problem was that Liverpool didn't have the personnel available to them to diffuse the pressure and grab a hold of the game. I am not, generally, overly critical of the current squad, but we missed a ball-playing defender like Daniel Agger (who is injured), and, perhaps more crucially, a real quality midfield playmaker in the mould of Alonso or Aquilani who could hold onto possession in tight spaces and pass the ball out from defence when under pressure. We also didn't have the kind of wingers who could carry the ball up the pitch, so Spearing and Lucas tended to attempt risky direct passes more frequently than they perhaps should have. Sandro did a good job of anchoring the Spurs midfield which limited the opportunities for easy passes to Suarez in particular. And their backline stayed deep even when Tottenham had possession which meant that Liverpool couldn't diffuse pressure by hitting simple balls over the top or into the channels for Suarez or Carroll to chase. There was quite a large gap between the two front-men and the two defensive 'banks of four,' and it is possible that the inclusion of an extra attack-minded central midfielder (like Jonjo Shelvey, who was impressive again in his brief substitute appearance) in place of Andy Carroll might've given Liverpool a better chance of winning the game.

Real Madrid v Barcelona - Preview

Time for another brief foray away from writing about Liverpool. This is how I think Madrid and Barcelona will line up tonight:



Khedira and Carvalho are unavailable for Real Madrid. This would normally mean that Albiol would come into central defence, but I am not convinced that Mourinho trusts him. Remember he was sent off in the most recent league meeting between these two sides. As a result, I think Pepe will drop into the centre-back position, vacating the defensive-midfield role he has filled so well in recent weeks. This allows for a slight reconfiguration of the Madrid line-up, bringing in the disciplined Diarra in place of the comparatively energetic and impetuous Khedira, and reverting to their usual formation for home matches - 4-2-3-1.

Mourinho had moderate success fielding three defensive midfielders against Barcelona in their previous two meetings - the 1-1 draw at the Bernabeu in the league (Madrid claiming an equaliser with 10 men), and the 1-0 AET Copa del Rey final victory - and will have learnt some important lessons from the way that his side was humiliated in the away league fixture earlier in the season when they fielded a more offensive side. So why would he risk getting soundly beaten again when his defensive line-ups have had more success?

For one, it's a matter of strategy for Mourinho. Like when his Inter side faced Barcelona at this stage of last season's competition, he will probably want to go out and attack aggressively and energetically at home, in the hope of having a lead to defend when Madrid travel to Camp Nou.

And, although tactics aren't crucially distinct from strategy, there are more traditional tactical benefits to be noted. Firstly, the 4-2-3-1 makes it easier for Madrid to press Barcelona high up the pitch, in comparison with the comparatively passive 4-3-3 which would leave Busquets unattended in the centre. In addition, the above formation allows CR7 to be positioned on the right-wing where he can attempt to expose whoever Barcelona choose to play at left-back in the absence of their first three choices (Abidal, Adriano and Maxwell).

Arsenal vs. Liverpool - Tactical Preview

When Arsenal welcome Liverpool to the Emirates on Sunday, both teams will know that only a win will keep their respective seasons' faint hopes alive. The Gunners are 7 points behind league-leaders Man United, with a game in hand, and must record a home victory if they have any hope of winning their first league title since 2004. Liverpool have altogether more humble ambitions - they must finish above Tottenham if they are to qualify for the Europa League next season, but Spurs are 5 points ahead with a game in hand (although they have yet to play Chelsea, Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool).

Dalglish and Clarke will probably line their team up in the fluid 4-4-2 formation which served them so well against Man City on monday, with Suarez in something of a free-role behind Andy Carroll, and the youngster John Flanagan retaining his place at right-back. Spearing seems to have made the central-midfield position his own (especially while Gerrard is injured) after good performances against Sunderland and, more recently, City. If Aurelio is fit enough, he should start at left-back.

Now, Liverpool had success with this formation on Monday against an admittedly lacklustre City side primarily because of the supreme work-rate and commitment offered by each and every player (especially Dirk Kuyt - see my review of the game). But is it the best tactical option for the long-term? Jonathan Wilson pointed out some key weaknesses of the 4-4-2 in his excellent article for the Guardian last week, from which I'll quote a few paragraphs:

"Football is not a predictable game. A team can have 20 chances and still lose to a side that musters only one. All a coach can do is manipulate the percentages as best he can in his favour. With that caveat in mind, though, a prediction – in the next decade, no side will win a major international tournament playing an orthodox 4-4-2.

"When a good side play with three central midfielders, whether in a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-3-3 (or either of their close cousins, 4‑2‑1‑3 and 4-1-2-3), they will almost inevitably dominate possession against a side playing only two central midfielders. The old defence of a high offside line simply is not as effective as it used to be thanks to the liberalisation of the rule.

"Even if the three do not dominate possession, fielding only two central midfelders leaves a side vulnerable if one of those central players pushes forward, a problem that dogged Manchester United in European competition for much of the late 1990s..."

Clearly Wilson focuses exclusively on the negative aspects of the 4-4-2 - it does, of course, have its merits - but the points he makes are important ones. Due to a numerical disadvantage in central midfield, teams playing a 4-4-2 will generally struggle to dominate possession, and will often leave too much space between the lines for the opposition to exploit.

With this in mind (I am not, generally, a fan of the 4-4-2 formation), and also on the basis of the different players we had available at the time (since the 25th of March, Agger, Johnson, Kelly and Gerrard have all been ruled out injured for the rest of the season), I suggested that Liverpool should be playing a 4-3-3 formation with Suarez stationed ostensibly on the left-wing in my piece 'A few tactical points for the rest of the season.'

The side we fielded against City and will probably field against Arsenal is not greatly different from this 4-3-3 - the key change being that Meireles now takes up a left-sided position and Suarez moves more centrally (although of course he is free to move across the entire pitch in search of space). In reality, despite the change in notation from 4-3-3 to 4-4-2, the differences are not overly insignificant, because Meireles will regularly look to cut inside, doing much of his defensive and attacking work in the centre of the pitch, and Suarez will often move to the left touchline to receive the ball (see the chalkboards below). It seems that Meireles played as a 'wide-central-midfielder' against City (see Zonal Marking's 'central winger' article if you find my terminology counterintuitive).

There are pros and cons of giving a central-midfielder a wide role. On the plus-side, if wide players 'tuck in' it can create more simple passing options for the central midfielders, making it easier for teams to retain possession and counteracting some of the weaknesses of the 4-4-2 formation in general. Wide players cutting in also creates space for the full-back to charge forward, which is increasingly important in today's game, but it also ensures that there is player with adequate defensive skills always available to help double-up on opposing wingers. Watch how Aurelio combined with Meireles, and occasionally Suarez, in this compilation of his performance vs. Man City (via @milankakabaros):

On the other hand, wide-players who don't offer much in terms of pace, skill, and ability to beat their man can often become passengers, and leave the team stunted in attack. Maxi Rodriguez (sometimes unfairly) has this criticism levelled at him - despite often playing a similar role to Meireles, it is expected that a certain degree of flair and creativity come from the wide-players, especially in terms of beating the full-back, getting to the by-line and crossing the ball for the likes of Carroll to attack. This is part of a more general problem, that playing central midfielders on the wing can mean the team severely lacks width, making them predictable and staid, especially if the full-backs can't get forward, or the forwards don't pull wide often enough.

Fortunately, Liverpool's energy and inventiveness against City ensured that this wasn't a problem, but at the Emirates on Sunday this system might be tested more sternly. For starters, we can assume that Van Persie will do a better job of occupying Liverpool's centre-backs than Dzeko did, which will leave Carragher less free to move across and support the fledgling Flanagan. Kuyt will have to produce a similarly heroic performance in terms of tracking back, tackling and closing down if Arsenal's left-sided players - i.e. Clichy and (probably) Arshavin - are to be stopped. Also, there is a hell of a lot more creativity in a midfield containing Nasri, Wilshere and Fabregas than was offered by Barry, Milner and Toure, so Lucas and Spearing (and Meireles) will have to be vigilant in their closing down and denying them space between the lines. Still, Suarez should be able to find space if Arsenal's midfield pushes forward, and Carroll is exactly the kind of physical, fearsome forward that can cause the likes of Koscielny and Squillaci/Djourou problems. It should be an interesting game.

A few tactical points for the rest of the season

When I last arbitrarily predicted the results of all Liverpool's and Tottenham's remaining Premier League fixtures this season, I had us marginally pipping Spurs to the now significant fifth-place position on mere goal difference. This may seem like wishful thinking, but it isn't entirely implausible that we might record wins over WBA, Newcastle, Birmingham, Fulham, Villa and, crucially, Spurs. Also, Tottenham are likely to be mentally distracted and physically exhausted by their upcoming clashes with Mourinho's Madrid (something which I, as a Liverpool fan, am extremely jealous of). Spurs do have a huge squad, so intelligent rotation might well see them through games against Wigan and Stoke, but they must still worry about their visits to Stamford Bridge, Eastlands and Anfield, and they certainly won't be looking forward to entertaining Arsenal on April 20th.

It seems likely that, assuming the squad stays largely injury-free, Dalglish and Clarke will field something like the following team for most of the remainder of the season:

It is possible that Aurelio will regain enough fitness to play the odd game at left-back, in which case Johnson could be dropped or moved to right-back in place of Kelly. It also seems likely that Carragher will still be in and around the first-team, perhaps at the expense of a starting place for Skrtel. Also, the front three will continue to play fluidly, with Kuyt and Suarez swapping wings and taking turns at moving into more central, deep-lying-forward positions. Necessary rotation should also ensure games for Maxi Rodriguez, David Ngog and Jay Spearing. But this team is likely to be Dalglish's first-choice.

The first thing to note is that the right-wing looks more defensively solid than the left. Kuyt is a battling wide-player, renowned for his energy and effort in harrying opposing full-backs, denying them space and tracking back when necessary. Suarez, perhaps seen as more of a creative luxury-player, might at times leave Johnson (who has never been the best defensively) exposed to attacks down that flank, but there are a few important responses to this concern.

The first is to point out that Suarez is actually quite dilligent defensively, used to putting a shift in against marauding full-backs. This is starkly evidenced by Suarez's tackling statistics against Man United. He helped to keep Evra reasonably quiet, as his tackling chalkboard indicates:


by Guardian Chalkboards

Also, Glen Johnson has looked comfortable defensively at left-back, probably more so than at right back. He seems to have been told to position himself square-on to his opposing winger, showing them inside onto their left foot and, with auxiliary help from Lucas or Meireles, quelling danger down Liverpool's left. There's no doubt that our opponents might look to mount fast counter-attacks down that flank though, so Johnson will have to maintain his good form if we are to make a decent attempt at fifth place.

It should also be noted that lining up with Suarez ostensibly on the left is likely to be very effective in an attacking sense. He is very comfortable cutting in from the wide areas and the fact that he is naturally right-footed means he will always be looking for space on the inside, closer to Andy Carroll, where he can really do some damage. This will leave space for Glen Johnson to charge into, which will make the most of the full-back's attacking ability, allowing us to really overload teams and put them under pressure while retaining possession. Agger is comfortable pulling across to cover for Johnson, too.

We will also have to hope that Agger maintains his exceptional level of performance, especially considering that, of the last six games he has played, we have won six (in comparison with the last six games he has been absent for, of which we have won just one). Skrtel, too, has been impressive recently, and it may well be that these two have the opportunity to show that they ought to be Liverpool's long-term first-choice centre-back partnership. Lucas has made more tackles (125) than any other Premier League player this season, so it seems we can rely on him for defensive assurance. Meireles' tackling has been less impressive (although it should be pointed out that his defensive statistics are drawn mostly from games in which he has been the most advanced of the three midfielders) so we will need Gerrard to continue in the spirit of positional discipline and defensive solidity that has (to my surprise) defined his recent performances. And, although I have already taken Suarez's exuberant brilliance for granted, he will need to maintain his level of form for the rest of the season, especially until Carroll regains full fitness (see my blog-post on Sunderland 0 - 2 Liverpool from this weekend).

On the whole I am optimistic that we can make a strong push for fifth-place, especially as we are sadly unhampered by European or domestic cup fixtures. It would be nice if Gerrard could hit a few last-minute thirty-yeard screamers, just like the good ol' days, but fortunately we won't be relying on him quite as much as we used to.