Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur - Tactical Preview

Tottenham’s post-Real Madrid meltdown has been so severe that certain Spurs fans have felt compelled to question Harry Redknapp’s future at the club. They have, after all, won just one of their last thirteen games – a run which has included home draws against Blackpool and West Brom, and, most recently, a defeat at Eastlands which ended their hopes of regaining a Champions League qualification spot. Redknapp has, in my opinion, done a decent job at Spurs on the whole, and doesn’t necessarily deserve too much criticism after two seasons which have been Tottenham’s most successful in recent history.

He has spent around £90m (less circa £20m in sales) since he took over from Juande Ramos, combining some astute signings – Gallas, Van der Vaart – with a few expensive mistakes (Robbie Keane being the most irrefutable example). It’s also worth remembering that he inherited a strong squad which included the likes of Gomes, Assou-Ekotto, Dawson, Huddlestone, Jenas, Modric, Bale, Lennon, and Pavlyuchenko. He should be credited with helping to bring on Bale as a top-class winger, and also with intelligently deploying Modric as a central midfield playmaker. Their wage bill is surprisingly low (the seventh highest in the league, according to the Swiss Ramble), so their fourth-place finish last season and subsequent European cup-run can be seen as an impressive overachievement in that sense, which would also imply that their current position of sixth is more-or-less their par for the season.

There is no disguising, however, that Tottenham’s squad is a big one, with plenty of talent (Tony Evans remarked on this week’s Game podcast that Alex Ferguson would’ve won the league with the players available to Harry Redknapp). As such, despite Redknapp’s suggestion that he might not be all that bothered if his side fail to qualify for the humble ol’ Europa League, he is still under a certain amount of pressure to prove that he is the man to take Tottenham forward next season.

Liverpool are in a comparatively optimistic mood, to put it mildly. Kenny Dalglish and Steve Clarke signed three-year contracts yesterday, and although I have nothing to add to what Paul Tomkins and Scott Murray wrote in their articles yesterday, the fact that Liverpool finally seem to have a good management structure, and to have the right people in the right positions at all levels of the team is something to celebrate.

It’s fairly difficult to predict who will start the game on Sunday. From Liverpool’s point of view, Andy Carroll and Raul Meireles have both been carrying knocks which kept them out of all or part of the game against Fulham, but I’d expect Carroll to start if fit, so it’s likely that Meireles will be rested/dropped to allow Maxi to continue his recent run of goalscoring form. Dalglish will probably line his team up in the fluid 4-4-2 which has been so successful for him in recent weeks. 

Various Tottenham players are carrying injuries, but Redknapp still has an abundance of midfield and attacking players to choose from. He seems to like to give each of them a run-out every now and then, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Palacios started over Sandro (especially as Redknapp has looked frustrated with the latter’s lack of positional discipline in recent weeks, and will want someone to do a solid job of restricting the supply to Suarez), and it’s difficult to guess whether he’ll choose Crouch or Pavlyuchenko up front. I think he’s most likely to go for the line-up that faced Man City after Palacios’ 32^nd minute injury, minus the injured Gallas, who will be replaced by Younes Kaboul (or Ledley King, who is apparently returning to 'fitness,' whatever that means):

The wing battles are likely to be key on Sunday. Young Danny Rose played fairly well at left-back against Blackpool and Man City, and not just in an attacking sense – he’s fast and technically gifted, but can deliver a well-timed tackle when he needs to. However, it’s possible that Redknapp will use the fit-again Sebastian Bassong at left-back for extra experience and defensive reliability, but it depends on whether he wants to adopt an adventurous or a conservative approach – Rose would be more likely to push Kuyt deeper with his overlapping runs, for example.

And Aaron Lennon caused Paul Konchesky some real problems back in November, but his pace is a test for any full-back, so Dalglish is likely to switch the more experienced Glen Johnson to left-back to deal with his threat. Johnson is naturally right-footed though, and Lennon likes to beat his man on the outside, get to the byline and deliver crosses, so a left-footed starter would be preferable. For that reason, it is possible that young Jack Robinson will get a recall at left-back at the expense of John Flanagan, with Johnson retaining the right-back role in which he has performed so well in recent weeks.

The importance of Luka Modric to Tottenham’s attacking play can hardly be overstated, so Liverpool will have to come up with a plan to deal with him. It’s likely that Spearing will be given the job of closing him down, limiting his supply to the strikers and wingers, but Lucas must sit deep and stay close to Van der Vaart who can become a peripheral figure if unable to find space in his preferred attacking midfield position. And if Liverpool don’t want to leave Tottenham’s third midfielder free, most likely Sandro, then Suarez will have to track back and close him down. 

Spurs are likely to leave space between their midfield and defence for Suarez to exploit, but Liverpool’s recent attacking play has relied on precise direct passing from Lucas and Spearing, as well as constant energy and movement from the attacking players. If Tottenham maintain a narrow midfield, Liverpool might be more tempted to use the option of playing direct balls to Andy Carroll’s head, which can be effective if done well, but should only be a plan B while the resurgence of Liverpool's swift pass-and-move football is bearing excellent results. 

On the whole, most signs (momentum, recent form, etc) point to a home win, but there's no denying that Tottenham have some quality which can cause Liverpool problems. How Dalglish and Clarke decide to deal with Lennon's threat may well be key.

Fulham 2 - 5 Liverpool

Pass and move is very much the Liverpool groove again. The result was beyond doubt within 15 minutes thanks to some frankly abysmal Fulham defending and, more pertinently from a Liverpool fan's point of view, a display of scintillating attacking football by the away side. Fortunately, the whole game was an enjoyable spectacle, as Fulham attempted a spirited come-back after half-time but Liverpool continued to attack with real purpose, and it feels like there are a surprisingly large number of talking points to be drawn from what might have been a fairly inconsequential Monday-night Premier League fixture.

Andy Carroll, still carrying an injury, was not included in the squad, so Maxi retained his starting place.  He took his chance by, unbelievably, scoring another hat-trick - the first two goals were a reward for his anticipation and movement (known in the industry as 'being in the right place at the right time') but his third was a 25-yard scorcher. He now has seven goals in three games, which is remarkable for a player generally regarded as tidy and dilligent but lacking in star quality. 

Zamora was on the bench for Fulham, with Dembele starting up front (although you wouldn't have known, totally anonymous as he was until he was shifted out to the right, to feed off Zamora's knockdowns, in the second half). Otherwise, they lined up as expected, but were generally poor apart from a 20-minute period after half-time. Gudjohnsen stayed too high up the pitch, which allowed Carragher (on his 666th Liverpool appearance) to do a stellar job of marking him out of the game. Fulham's midfield pairing of Murphy and Sidwell was too lightweight to deal with Liverpool's midfield three. Davies stayed wide, and was also a very peripheral figure.

Fulham were punished for adopting an extremely attacking mentality from the off - it's hard to know whether this was their initial game-plan, they might have been forced to readjust after going a goal down within 35 seconds, but they played wide, pushed up and committed midfielders and full-backs to attack. This left a lot of space for Kuyt, Maxi and Meireles to break into, and Suarez exploited Fulham's dodgy back-line superbly, punishing them time and time again. He looks dangerous whenever he gets the ball at his feet. Indeed, opposing defenders will now be having nightmares about getting exposed one-on-one with El Pistolero.

It's amazing to think that the general consensus, both amongst fans and in the media, is that Liverpool should be buying a lot of players in the Summer - but it's hard to imagine who can be dropped/sold if they do. They have scored 17 and conceded just three in the last five games. Even £35million Andy Carroll will struggle to regain a starting place with the team in such a rich vein of form without him, which is a testament to the fast-paced pass-and-move relationship which Suarez and Kuyt in particular have developed. Steven Gerrard, too, should have to prove that his early-season lacklustre form is well behind him if he is to regain one of the midfield starting spots when he returns from injury. It's quite incredible how effective Jay Spearing in particular has been with Lucas in the midfield these past few games. Glen Johnson (two assists and a faultless defensive performance tonight) is now routinely showing the form which has made him England's number 1 right-back, and although a world-class left-back should be sought this Summer, John Flanagan has been reliable when called upon.

When Meireles picked up a second-half injury, Jonjo Shelvey came on in his place and immediately impressed in his cameo appearance, particularly in terms of his ability to pick a pass, and his interplay with Suarez. Hopefully if he stays injury-free next-season he'll be able to make a bigger contribution. He is another who will soon be competing for Gerrard's place in the starting line-up.

I had also planned to write something on Skrtel (who has been widely overlooked for Liverpool's player of the season, even as 2nd or 3rd choice, despite having performed solidly in nearly every game this season), or Reina (who made his 150th consecutive start for the club), or Carragher (who, after tonight, has made more appearances than any other Liverpool player besides Ian Callaghan). They will all have to wait for another time, though, as tonight we should just rejoice in the fact that glorious attacking football has returned to a Liverpool team which, despite being tipped for a relegation battle earlier in the season, is now impressing with every single performance and looks odds-on to claim fifth-place in the Premier League.

Liverpool 3 - 0 Newcastle United

Andy Carroll hadn't regained full fitness so featured only as a substitute late-on. Liverpool stuck with the team that demolished Birmingham last weekend, with the exception of the left-back position, where Glen Johnson returned from injury to replace Jack Robinson. Meanwhile, Newcastle fielded their expected 4-4-2 with Barton on the right-wing:

This was a comfortable win for Liverpool thanks to a first-half deflected goal from Maxi, a coolly-dispatched Kuyt penalty (after some tenacious harrying from Suarez and, subsequently, a naive challenge from Mike Williamson), and a simple finish from close range from the Uruguayan to wrap things up. Newcastle didn't have much to offer today, and the home team strolled to victory in the end.

It hadn't always looked so assured for Liverpool, though. They were, in fact, pinned back in their own defensive third towards the end of the first half. Newcastle, in search of an equaliser, won a number of freekicks and corners - it was just fortunate for Liverpool that they had nicked Andy Carroll in January, and that Joey Barton's set-piece taking wasn't up to its usual high standard.

Jonas Gutierrez had been enjoying the best of a battle with the young John Flanagan on Newcastle's left-wing, a state of affairs which changed after half-time. Dalglish instructed Flanagan and Johnson to switch sides, and the England international excelled defensively, winning 7 of his 8 second-half tackles and keeping his Argentinian counterpart quiet.

by Guardian Chalkboards

Liverpool stepped up a gear in the second half, with particularly influential performances from Kuyt and Suarez. They look to have formed an excellent relationship already, their intelligent movement and swift interchange of passing routinely dazzling and dizzying opposing defenders. The midfield was strong as ever, restricting Nolan and Tiote to sideways passes almost exclusively, and Reina, Carragher and Skrtel were rarely troubled.

This win leaves Liverpool in 5th place, above Tottenham on goal difference having played a game more. Spurs' visit to Anfield on the 15th of May takes on real significance in the battle for European qualification.

A few tactical points for the rest of the season

When I last arbitrarily predicted the results of all Liverpool's and Tottenham's remaining Premier League fixtures this season, I had us marginally pipping Spurs to the now significant fifth-place position on mere goal difference. This may seem like wishful thinking, but it isn't entirely implausible that we might record wins over WBA, Newcastle, Birmingham, Fulham, Villa and, crucially, Spurs. Also, Tottenham are likely to be mentally distracted and physically exhausted by their upcoming clashes with Mourinho's Madrid (something which I, as a Liverpool fan, am extremely jealous of). Spurs do have a huge squad, so intelligent rotation might well see them through games against Wigan and Stoke, but they must still worry about their visits to Stamford Bridge, Eastlands and Anfield, and they certainly won't be looking forward to entertaining Arsenal on April 20th.

It seems likely that, assuming the squad stays largely injury-free, Dalglish and Clarke will field something like the following team for most of the remainder of the season:

It is possible that Aurelio will regain enough fitness to play the odd game at left-back, in which case Johnson could be dropped or moved to right-back in place of Kelly. It also seems likely that Carragher will still be in and around the first-team, perhaps at the expense of a starting place for Skrtel. Also, the front three will continue to play fluidly, with Kuyt and Suarez swapping wings and taking turns at moving into more central, deep-lying-forward positions. Necessary rotation should also ensure games for Maxi Rodriguez, David Ngog and Jay Spearing. But this team is likely to be Dalglish's first-choice.

The first thing to note is that the right-wing looks more defensively solid than the left. Kuyt is a battling wide-player, renowned for his energy and effort in harrying opposing full-backs, denying them space and tracking back when necessary. Suarez, perhaps seen as more of a creative luxury-player, might at times leave Johnson (who has never been the best defensively) exposed to attacks down that flank, but there are a few important responses to this concern.

The first is to point out that Suarez is actually quite dilligent defensively, used to putting a shift in against marauding full-backs. This is starkly evidenced by Suarez's tackling statistics against Man United. He helped to keep Evra reasonably quiet, as his tackling chalkboard indicates:


by Guardian Chalkboards

Also, Glen Johnson has looked comfortable defensively at left-back, probably more so than at right back. He seems to have been told to position himself square-on to his opposing winger, showing them inside onto their left foot and, with auxiliary help from Lucas or Meireles, quelling danger down Liverpool's left. There's no doubt that our opponents might look to mount fast counter-attacks down that flank though, so Johnson will have to maintain his good form if we are to make a decent attempt at fifth place.

It should also be noted that lining up with Suarez ostensibly on the left is likely to be very effective in an attacking sense. He is very comfortable cutting in from the wide areas and the fact that he is naturally right-footed means he will always be looking for space on the inside, closer to Andy Carroll, where he can really do some damage. This will leave space for Glen Johnson to charge into, which will make the most of the full-back's attacking ability, allowing us to really overload teams and put them under pressure while retaining possession. Agger is comfortable pulling across to cover for Johnson, too.

We will also have to hope that Agger maintains his exceptional level of performance, especially considering that, of the last six games he has played, we have won six (in comparison with the last six games he has been absent for, of which we have won just one). Skrtel, too, has been impressive recently, and it may well be that these two have the opportunity to show that they ought to be Liverpool's long-term first-choice centre-back partnership. Lucas has made more tackles (125) than any other Premier League player this season, so it seems we can rely on him for defensive assurance. Meireles' tackling has been less impressive (although it should be pointed out that his defensive statistics are drawn mostly from games in which he has been the most advanced of the three midfielders) so we will need Gerrard to continue in the spirit of positional discipline and defensive solidity that has (to my surprise) defined his recent performances. And, although I have already taken Suarez's exuberant brilliance for granted, he will need to maintain his level of form for the rest of the season, especially until Carroll regains full fitness (see my blog-post on Sunderland 0 - 2 Liverpool from this weekend).

On the whole I am optimistic that we can make a strong push for fifth-place, especially as we are sadly unhampered by European or domestic cup fixtures. It would be nice if Gerrard could hit a few last-minute thirty-yeard screamers, just like the good ol' days, but fortunately we won't be relying on him quite as much as we used to.